I still haven’t been posting lately due to all of the important moping I’ve been doing, but here’s a round-up of my thoughts on political happenings:
~ The electoral college is not looking good for McCain. Election Projection has it at 369-169 Obama while Electoral Vote has it at 352-171 Obama (with 15 electoral votes too close to call as per their format). I consider those both reputable sites who predicted the election pretty accurately in 2004, but I am cynical that Virgina, West Virginia, Nevada, Ohio, Florida, Missouri and North Carolina will go for Obama. Putting those states back into McCain’s column would make the tally 273-265 Obama. Even with the most optimistic best case scenario possible, McCain still needs to flip something blue, so a McCain victory is really a long shot at this point. Then again, who knows. If Bush can become President because a couple thousand voters in Florida were too stupid to read the directions on how to correctly vote for Al Gore, anything can happen.
~ Along those lines, if you’re dying for some optimism, DJ Drummond has written some excellent posts analyzing the state polls and the state of the electoral college. For example, Survey USA is using a weighting of 54%/35%/10% D/R/I for their polls in Pennsylvania. The actual voter turn-out in Pennsylvania in 2006 was 43%/38%/19%, which makes for some pretty sick overweighting of Democrats and underweighting of Republicans and Independents. Anyways, here are DJ’s articles:
~ You remember that story about the supporter at a Sarah Palin rally who yelled “Kill him!” when Barack Obama’s name was mentioned? Obama mentioned it at the debate last night. Problem is, the Secret Service says it didn’t happen. The reporter from the Scranton Times-Tribune who claimed he heard it did not bother to get anyone else to corroborate on his report before publishing it. On the other hand, supporters displaying “SARAH PALIN IS A C—” t-shirts on Barack Obama’s official web site did happen. I guess the media is suddenly very interested in political rage from Republican supporters (real or imaginary), so surely they’ll be interested in examples of rage from Democratic supporters, right? This is going to be fun. Michelle Malkin has a round-up of leftist “insane rage” if you want more. (H/T on the “Kill him” story: Ed Morrissey at Hot Air)
~ Also non-political: Brandon Sanderson‘s third book in the Mistborn trilogy, Hero of Ages, is out, so go buy it. This has been an excellent hard fantasy series and I really can’t recommend it enough. My husband tells me that we’ll be meeting Brandon for dinner the first week of November, which will be awesome.
I have a post in my head discussing the evangelical practice of calling Mormonism a cult and saying Mormons aren’t Christians, and it will have a more positive tone than my anti-Mormon memoirs, but I’ll get around to writing it when I get around to writing it.